[Politics] Tory meltdown finally arrived [was: incoming]...

[nicko31]

It is interesting to note that in the 2 years since the Partygate story broke and the Tories have been in meltdown the polls indicate that share of the vote for the Lib Dems and the Greens has flatlined.

This is an indicator that the majority of voters see English politics as binary. Only FPTP explains why many voters exasperated with the Tories will move directly through the middle ground and settle on the left to support Starmer's Labour.

This is even more bizarre when you consider pre-2015 the majority of the Conservative vote used to be pro-European and so the natural home for a disaffected One Nation Tories would be the Lib Dems. However, they have remained constant on 10% while Brexit has floundered and we've chewed our way through 5 Prime Ministers.

The thing is the LD's aren't differentiating themselves enough from Labour.

On Europe they have nothing to fear, FFS be bold, what is there to lose? Call out the Brexit shitshow and explain how to fix it....

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Compulsory voting works fine in Oz with a preference system.

Indeed. And I like it lots. But they have had more than 100 years to get used to it.

"Compulsory voting has a century-long history in this nation. Not only is it a durable feature of Australian democracy, but it is universally applied. Whenever an election is called, whether it be at the national, state or territory level, voters are obliged to turn out at pain of being fined or, in the last resort, being gaoled for failure to comply."

And even so there have been moves to bin it.

"The previous December, the Coalition-controlled Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters (JSCEM) handed down its report on the 2019 federal election. It contained a slew of recommendations for electoral reform — among the most controversial was the replacement of compulsory preferential voting with optional preferential voting. That recommendation was condemned by both the Labor Party and Greens in their minority JSCEM reports. Labor described the recommendation for optional preferential voting as an “attack on compulsory voting”, which was “the cornerstone of Australian democracy”."

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Medway had three Labour MPs in 1997, 2001 and 2005. Labour took control of Medway council in May this year so it is not impossible although still unlikely. Anyway I thought you lived in Swale ! In any case Sittingbourne and Sheppey also had a Labour MP during the Blair years.

Apologies. I'm in Maidstone and the Weald. The indelicious Helen Whately. It always seems so bizarre my constituency is named after a town I have visited only 5 times in the last 30 years.

 

[Sid and the Sharknados]

Apologies. I'm in Maidstone and the Weald. The indelicious Helen Whately. It always seems so bizarre my constituency is named after a town I have visited only 5 times in the last 30 years.

View attachment 171075

Erm, you know Helen Whately (Faversham and Mid Kent) and Helen Grant (Maidstone and the Weald) are different people don't you?

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

The thing is the LD's aren't differentiating themselves enough from Labour.

On Europe they have nothing to fear, FFS be bold, what is there to lose? Call out the Brexit shitshow and explain how to fix it....

I would say they aren't differentiating themselves from labour either. Partly because they are completely invisible. I couldn't name their leader, let alone any front benchers.

 

[Pevenseagull]

Apologies. I'm in Maidstone and the Weald. The indelicious Helen Whately. It always seems so bizarre my constituency is named after a town I have visited only 5 times in the last 30 years.

View attachment 171075

Whately is Faversham

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

you know Helen Whately (Faversham and Mid Kent) and Helen Grant (Maidstone and the Weald) are different people don't you?

OOPS!

"In 1997, the Faversham and Mid Kent constituency was formed when the previous Faversham seat was abolished and split into Sittingbourne and Sheppey and the town of Faversham which was then merged with Mid Kent to form this constituency."

If you look at the Maidstone outcome and the Faversham outcome (below) it is easy to see how the mistake is made.

I once tried tactically voting liberal but my own party came second. Never mind. I'll keep voting and hoping.

Still, with second preference voting We could get a labour MP! I'm now convinced. PR, rah rah - I'm IN!

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Whately is Faversham

I got the name of my constituency wrong. Whately is my MP

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

maybe, you dont hear Conservatives ever making the case.

under any single seat system Wealden will return Conservative, just as Knowsley will return Labour. to address the under representation that arises from current system needs change to regional system, ending the links with constituency seats. btw that returned UKIP/Conservative majority in last national vote under PR. we'd have a very different political landscape under proper PR.

Indeed. It baffles me that liberals and greens (who favour PR) are so relaxed about letting the likes of Farrage into parliament and increasing the risk of a far right coalition. f*** PR

 

[nicko31]

I would say they aren't differentiating themselves from labour either. Partly because they are completely invisible. I couldn't name their leader, let alone any front benchers.

I guess for them being visible with 15 MPs is difficult. Should put Layla Moran in as leader and change course

 

[Sid and the Sharknados]

Indeed. It baffles me that liberals and greens (who favour PR) are so relaxed about letting the likes of Farrage into parliament and increasing the risk of a far right coalition. f*** PR

You mean, like our current government?

 

[Pevenseagull]

I got the name of my constituency wrong. Whately is my MP

Both in the tory's top 60 safest seats so unlikely to be going anywhere soon ..... (unless Farage and Johnson want a safe seat).

 

[nicko31]

Indeed. It baffles me that liberals and greens (who favour PR) are so relaxed about letting the likes of Farrage into parliament and increasing the risk of a far right coalition. f*** PR

Is Farage hard right or far right? I think the former, he ain't Nick Griffin. We already have a hard right government already.

At least PR would give us a representative democracy. The Tories only got 300k more votes in the last election than 2017 and got a whopping majority. System is knackered...

 

[ManOfSussex]

I got the name of my constituency wrong. Whately is my MP

A Survation poll in The Times last month had this for Faversham and Mid Kent:

Faversham and Mid Kent
Winner: Con
Vote share by party

Con 41.4%
Lab 35.8%
Lib Dem 10.9%
Green 4.3%
SNP 0%
Plaid 0%

Labour set to do better than Blair’s 1997 landslide at next election, poll says

Sir Keir Starmer is on course to win more seats than Tony Blair did in his landslide victory in 1997 despite his party being riven with divisions over whether to back a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas conflict.Labour would win the keys to Downing Street with a 212-seat majority if the general election

www.thetimes.co.uk

Tory hold due to the vote being split. Some amazing Tory losses elsewhere though if true.

 

[chip]

Interesting that some people think we should be forced to vote in a represenative democracy, no matter what form. Compulsory preferntial voting seems insane if you don't support any of the parties. With PR in its many forms, manifestos seem pointless when you are likely to get a coalition - you literally have no idea of what the future governments priorities will be. We have a right to vote, not an obligation.

Personally, I think the House of Lords is a bigger danger to democracy. I think it would be better elected with lower numbers, but would still be just more of the same then. I'd prefer a system like jury service, I'd like to have normal people scrutinising parliament.

 

[nicko31]

Interesting that some people think we should be forced to vote in a represenative democracy, no matter what form. Compulsory preferntial voting seems insane if you don't support any of the parties. With PR in its many forms, manifestos seem pointless when you are likely to get a coalition - you literally have no idea of what the future governments priorities will be. We have a right to vote, not an obligation.

Personally, I think the House of Lords is a bigger danger to democracy. I think it would be better elected with lower numbers, but would still be just more of the same then. I'd prefer a system like jury service, I'd like to have normal people scrutinising parliament.

I'm not the biggest fan of the HOL in its current form, it needs further reform.

That said with the recent crop of dishonest actors who have had little respect for democracy, our institutions and the rule of law its been been an essential guardrail against the slide toward facism

 

[KZNSeagull]

Interesting that some people think we should be forced to vote in a represenative democracy, no matter what form. Compulsory preferntial voting seems insane if you don't support any of the parties. With PR in its many forms, manifestos seem pointless when you are likely to get a coalition - you literally have no idea of what the future governments priorities will be. We have a right to vote, not an obligation.

Personally, I think the House of Lords is a bigger danger to democracy. I think it would be better elected with lower numbers, but would still be just more of the same then. I'd prefer a system like jury service, I'd like to have normal people scrutinising parliament.

I have read "How Westminster Works.....And Why It Doesn't" by Ian Dunt and he says that only 2 parts of Westminster actually work well - Select Committees and the House of Lords. He says that whilst it does need reform, it has a vital role as there is not a majority for 1 party, many in there are not affiliated to a party which encourages compromise and many are subject experts in their respective fields, a trait sadly lacking in the House of Commons.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Indeed. It baffles me that liberals and greens (who favour PR) are so relaxed about letting the likes of Farrage into parliament and increasing the risk of a far right coalition. f*** PR

Because there's certainly no chance of us getting a far right government under FPTP ...... oh

 

[Audax]

The thing is the LD's aren't differentiating themselves enough from Labour.

On Europe they have nothing to fear, FFS be bold, what is there to lose? Call out the Brexit shitshow and explain how to fix it....

Agreed. I personally think that the LD's are so busy passing the ball around they've completely failed to notice that the Conservatives' goalie has been laid out cold by their right winger and the center-mids are too busy watching that going on to notice what's happening elsewhere on the field and the goal is wide open for a tap-in.

IMO, the Lib Dems should make a bold move to claim the centre-right that the Conservatives have vacated. Do it alongside having a strong pro-environment and pro-integrity platform as a strong differentiating point, and they could find themselves replacing the Tories as the opposition once Labour sweep to a landslide GE win. Basically take the "Teal Independent" concept from Australia and apply it with the funding and electoral know-how of an experienced political party. Then go and target all the Tory seats that Labour can't hope to win even in a landslide.

Interesting that some people think we should be forced to vote in a represenative democracy, no matter what form. Compulsory preferntial voting seems insane if you don't support any of the parties. With PR in its many forms, manifestos seem pointless when you are likely to get a coalition - you literally have no idea of what the future governments priorities will be. We have a right to vote, not an obligation.

Personally, I think the House of Lords is a bigger danger to democracy. I think it would be better elected with lower numbers, but would still be just more of the same then. I'd prefer a system like jury service, I'd like to have normal people scrutinising parliament.

Even in Australia it isn't compulsory to vote. It's compulsory to turn up and get your name crossed off. After that, you can just draw a big comedy cock on the ballot and stick it in the box. Or just leave the ballot blank.

 

[essbee1]

Agreed. I personally think that the LD's are so busy passing the ball around they've completely failed to notice that the Conservatives' goalie has been laid out cold by their right winger and the center-mids are too busy watching that going on to notice what's happening elsewhere on the field and the goal is wide open for a tap-in.

IMO, the Lib Dems should make a bold move to claim the centre-right that the Conservatives have vacated. Do it alongside having a strong pro-environment and pro-integrity platform as a strong differentiating point, and they could find themselves replacing the Tories as the opposition once Labour sweep to a landslide GE win. Basically take the "Teal Independent" concept from Australia and apply it with the funding and electoral know-how of an experienced political party. Then go and target all the Tory seats that Labour can't hope to win even in a landslide.



Even in Australia it isn't compulsory to vote. It's compulsory to turn up and get your name crossed off. After that, you can just draw a big comedy cock on the ballot and stick it in the box. Or just leave the ballot blank.

The irony being that a cock would be the most apt sign for 99.99% of politicians anyway.