[Politics] Tory meltdown finally arrived [was: incoming]...

[Marty McFly]

Only just realised there are by-elections today. How are they expected to go?

 

[Is it PotG?]

Only just realised there are by-elections today. How are they expected to go?

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Only just realised there are by-elections today. How are they expected to go?

Tamworth poss Lab Gain, Mid Beds unsure.

 

[pocketseagull]

Most recent poll I saw for mid-beds had tories winning on less votes than both Labour and Lib Dems. Good ol' first past the post.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

View attachment 168245

If the Lib Dem and Green voters decided to vote Labour in Mid Beds the Tories would lose that one too, but it looks like the centre left parties are going to f*** it up.

 

[beorhthelm]

Only just realised there are by-elections today. How are they expected to go?

read Lib Dem complaining about Labour not stepping aside for one of them, between lines expecting the split vote to see Conservative win.

 

[Is it PotG?]

If the Lib Dem and Green voters decided to vote Labour in Mid Beds the Tories would lose that one too, but it looks like the centre left parties are going to f*** it up.

Longer term, it will be interesting next year (?) if the reds and yellows can coordinate effectively to do this nationwide.

 

[Audax]

Only just realised there are by-elections today. How are they expected to go?

In theory, both should be easy Tory holds - defending 20k and 25k majorities. Suspect the reality could be very different. One of them, unfortunately, is looking like a tight 3-way fight. Which might just let the Tory squeak in despite an awful lot more people voting to *not* have a Tory than for one. The other is expected to be a knife-edge two-way between Labour and Tory, but Labour need a big swing.

Suspect the 3-way could have us all talking about how rubbish FPTP is as a democratic system tomorrow...

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Longer term, it will be interesting next year (?) if the reds and yellows can coordinate effectively to do this nationwide.

Yes.

I'm a Lib Dem member, but I understand that if you're not a Tory, then getting them out of power is the only game in town, for now.

 

[Is it PotG?]

Yes.

I'm a Lib Dem member, but I understand that if you're not a Tory, then getting them out of power is the only game in town, for now.

Do you feel that a possible Lab/Lib Dem coalition could provide an effective government?

 

[Audax]

Yes.

I'm a Lib Dem member, but I understand that if you're not a Tory, then getting them out of power is the only game in town, for now.

For me, the Lib Dems need to learn from the last Aussie GE. Position themselves as the "integrity & pro-green" alternative for the forward-thinking voter on the right and target the seats likely to have that sort of demographic. "Teal Independents" did it so well in Aus, there's a blueprint to be followed. If that means leaving Labour an open goal in a lot of seats, then do it. But, IMO, there's a lot of votes for the Lib Dems to win targeting that centre-right pro-green demographic and could see them have a lot of success in seats that are generally no-go zones for Labour and the Greens.

 

[Is it PotG?]

For me, the Lib Dems need to learn from the last Aussie GE. Position themselves as the "integrity & pro-green" alternative for the forward-thinking voter on the right and target the seats likely to have that sort of demographic. "Teal Independents" did it so well in Aus, there's a blueprint to be followed. If that means leaving Labour an open goal in a lot of seats, then do it. But, IMO, there's a lot of votes for the Lib Dems to win targeting that centre-right pro-green demographic and could see them have a lot of success in seats that are generally no-go zones for Labour and the Greens.

What's in it for them if Labour gain a majority?

 

[Machiavelli]

Do you feel that a possible Lab/Lib Dem coalition could provide an effective government?

A long time ago I put a bet on a Lib/Lab coalition, and on a Lab minority govt. The odds on the former were much better than on the latter. Noises from inside the Lib Dems is that they won't go into a coalition with anyone, as they were so badly stung by the last one, but would be willing to do confidence and supply.
You do ask about coalition and effective govt: from where I'm sitting, the last effective govt was the coalition (not that I agreed with most of what it did), and that's even given that the last 3 PMs have had big HoC majorities, but that hasn't made them effective.

 

[Stato]

Tories have leaked research suggesting that they are going to lose both, but this is a well used tactic to manage expectation. In reality, they are odds on favourites to win Dorries' seat in Mid Beds because the opposition vote is split between Labour and the Lib Dems. Labour are favourites to take Tamworth - the 142nd safest tory seat at the last election: https://londonlovesbusiness.com/tor...n-with-labour-frontrunners-for-tamworth-seat/

The government will be claiming success if they lose only the one where they had a 20,000 majority, but sneak home in the one where they had a 25,000 majority. That's madness. They didn't even lose Mid Beds in 1997. It was ranked 129th safest of their seats at the 2019 election. If they were to lose, it would be a massive shock and an indication of potentially winning only about 100 seats at the next election.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Most recent poll I saw for mid-beds had tories winning on less votes than both Labour and Lib Dems. Good ol' first past the post.

Surely if the Tories get fewer votes than labour and the lib dems they come third?

If you mean than labour plus the liberals combined, then that's showbusiness. The tories are the de facto winners.

I mean, what would be fairer, having half a labour and half a liberal MP, on some sort of timeshare, and no tory? How would that be fair? The tories win, and they get no MP? Really? How is that fair?

I am sure someone with a PhD in political sophistry will be along in a minute to explain how we could have asked all the voters who their second preference would be, give half a vote for each second preference, and then end up with a labour MP!. But what if the tory voters don't want to vote for another party? They should be given the right to give their extra half a vote to the tory candidate, not made to abstain. Then the tory candidate would win. Which would be fair.

We elect the candidate preferred by more people than any of the other candidates. How is this unfair?

The only 'fair solution that allows all the voters to get a representative into parliament would be for each constituency to return, say, 5 MPs, out of a longer list of candidates, with each party allowed up to, say, five candidates. That way, in the present case, you may get 3 tories, one labour and one liberal returned.

OK I know that if the liberal plus labour vote exceeds the tory vote then the 3:1:1 ratio would be unfair. But to make it exactly fair would therefore require a minimum of ten MPs returned in the constituency (and every other) so with ten candidates per party, we could have 3 liberals, 3 labour and 4 tory MPs returned (and 3 plus 3 is bigger than 4; jobzagoodun).

But what about the minor parties? Shouldn't they get some parliamentary representation? Snot fair if they don't. Innit.

The only way to do that is to not elect MPs directly but have your vote carried into a regional pot, and then have MPs elected across a small number of larger constituencies, like we did for European elections (remember them? Me neither). So in the south east there could be 100 labour candidates, 100 tory candidates and so on, with maybe a total of 75 MPs returned, with each voter getting 75 votes, with the top 75 candidates elected. Sort of like the Eurovision song contest voting scheme.

f***ing madness.

I want to know the weft of the individual I will be returning to Westminster. If my preferred candidate loses, fair enough. But I want me and the other electors to know the smell and attitude of the winner. I want to be able to campaign against him/her next time, and watch the bastard like a hawk when they try to represent me in parliament. I can't do that with a mixed bag of 75 arseholes. Or even three arseholes. Yep, with any system other that what we have now, we will become increasingly disconnected from whoever we return. We are not dutiful Germans. We are maverick, demanding Brits..

Anyway, sick and tired of the arguments. We will never ditch FTPTP until labour or tories realize they can never again achieve a majority without electoral 'reform'.

Which is why the Liberals are all over it. Fancy that!

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

A long time ago I put a bet on a Lib/Lab coalition, and on a Lab minority govt. The odds on the former were much better than on the latter. Noises from inside the Lib Dems is that they won't go into a coalition with anyone, as they were so badly stung by the last one, but would be willing to do confidence and supply.
You do ask about coalition and effective govt: from where I'm sitting, the last effective govt was the coalition (not that I agreed with most of what it did), and that's even given that the last 3 PMs have had big HoC majorities, but that hasn't made them effective.

Yes but that's because all the ****s we have had since have been a useless shower of raving incompetents and arseholes.

 

[A1X]

On the by-elections, I expect the Tories to win both despite big swings against and much angst about tactical voting to follow, especially in Mid-Beds. They’re two of their safest seats going.

 

[Machiavelli]

Yes but that's because all the ****s we have had since have been a useless shower of raving incompetents and arseholes.

You might say that. I couldn't possibly comment

 

[A1X]

It’s been washed away by other news, but some of the stuff continuing to come out of the COVID Inquiry remains awful

 

[The Clamp]

When I saw Sunak was visiting Israel I thought “why”?

What possible use could that utter moron be to anyone in a war zone?

Who would be happy to see that fuckwit turn up?

Just sign the aid cheques from beside your pool.