[Politics] Tory meltdown finally arrived [was: incoming]...

[Nobby Cybergoat]

This country of ours is a mess.
A real mess

Someone put my mind at rest.

Have a governing party ever, in UK politics, with such negative poll ratings a year from a General Election, gone on to get re-elected?

Everyone here seems to accept these filthy scum Tories will get trounced, thrashed, indeed buried, at the next election.

So can they recover in the polls when it really matters?

It would be the "best" political comeback of all time. A labour majority is 1/2, so on that basis a comeback is unlikely

However there's a lot that can still go wrong for Labour.

The press will be gearing up for a full year of ferocious attacks on Keir Starmer. Any small mistakes or any message indiscpline will be ruthlessly pounced on

Meanwhile Sunak isn't stupid (well ok, he's not the most talented PM in history, but he has a certain cunning). He'll think he can keep a chunk of the red wall voting tory with immigration scare stories and pro car policies.

 

[beorhthelm]

he threw himself out?

i reckon he wanted to make a protest, and told pepole he would.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

i reckon he wanted to make a protest, and told pepole he would.

He wasn't very good at protesting, then, with a quiet mutter under his breath.

If he was going to stage something like that, at least stand up and shout.

 

[rogersix]

Not really.

A dominant political party together with a compliant media can drag people who would never have considered themselves right wing along with them. It just takes, lots of time and strong consistently reinforced narratives and it's quite possible to get swathes of a countries population to believe what you want them to believe.

There are plenty of examples of this through history.

a lot of peolpe want to believe the lie before the lie is lied, they have to be willing, or they may fact check

 

[abc]

This country of ours is a mess.
A real mess

Someone put my mind at rest.

Have a governing party ever, in UK politics, with such negative poll ratings a year from a General Election, gone on to get re-elected?

Everyone here seems to accept these filthy scum Tories will get trounced, thrashed, indeed buried, at the next election.

So can they recover in the polls when it really matters?

No. Whilst there are still many with natural Tory sympathies left, polls show that the majority of these want a change of government. But you are right to not think its all a done deal, the NSC echo chamber is not necessarily representative of all voters.

 

[nicko31]

It would be the "best" political comeback of all time. A labour majority is 1/2, so on that basis a comeback is unlikely

However there's a lot that can still go wrong for Labour.

The press will be gearing up for a full year of ferocious attacks on Keir Starmer. Any small mistakes or any message indiscpline will be ruthlessly pounced on

Meanwhile Sunak isn't stupid (well ok, he's not the most talented PM in history, but he has a certain cunning). He'll think he can keep a chunk of the red wall voting tory with immigration scare stories and pro car policies.

Remember Starmer's non-curry, Dacre's Mail went with 12 days straight on their front page and it ended in nothing. Labour has to contend with a lot of headwinds from a hostile press, its not a level playing field and regulation is weak. Imagine if Michelle Mone was a Labour Lord and they'd be in power??

There is also voter suppression with the ID requirement to try and stop the young and poor from voting. This should not be under estimated...

 

[Thunder Bolt]

a lot of peolpe want to believe the lie before the lie is lied, they have to be willing, or they may fact check

People aren't satisfied when life isn't going their way, so need someone to blame.
The youngsters nowadays
Old people
Immigrants nicking jobs
Immigrants taking our benefits
Immigrants taking our place in the queue for the NHS

etc etc

Rarely do people blame politicians, apart from the 'They're all the same'

The same people who can't be bothered turning out to vote because 'it makes no difference'.

 

[Stato]

Plus the Conservative vote is always underestimated when polling day comes round.

Not always:

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Remember Starmer's non-curry, Dacre's Mail went with 12 days straight on their front page and it ended in nothing. Labour has to contend with a lot of headwinds from a hostile press, its not a level playing field and regulation is weak. Imagine if Michelle Mone was a Labour Lord and they'd be in power??

There is also voter suppression with the ID requirement to try and stop the young and poor from voting. This should not be under estimated...

Lots of attacks on Starmer going on right now. We're back to the 'private education' and what did his parents do.
Attacks coming from the right and the left.

 

[beorhthelm]

It would be the "best" political comeback of all time. A labour majority is 1/2, so on that basis a comeback is unlikely

However there's a lot that can still go wrong for Labour.

The press will be gearing up for a full year of ferocious attacks on Keir Starmer. Any small mistakes or any message indiscpline will be ruthlessly pounced on

Meanwhile Sunak isn't stupid (well ok, he's not the most talented PM in history, but he has a certain cunning). He'll think he can keep a chunk of the red wall voting tory with immigration scare stories and pro car policies.

from state of social media, looks like their biggest threat is from the left that dont like Starmer. i can see him picking up votes from the centre and losing from the traditional core.

 

[rogersix]

i reckon he wanted to make a protest, and told pepole he would.

like the police?

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

from state of social media, looks like their biggest threat is from the left that dont like Starmer. i can see him picking up votes from the centre and losing from the traditional core.

I don't see the remaining Corbyn lot who would rather see the tories win again than vote for Starmer having the numbers to make any difference.

The young are overwhelmingly backing Starmer and huge efforts will need to be put in to getting them registered and out to vote, but I think the tories are riling them so much this will happen. The election date is likely to take into account the dates when youngsters might be at university

 

[beorhthelm]

like the police?

that would be silly. suggesting he mentions it to people in confidence and someone lets it out. fact is there is footage from couple of cameras directly on him, several others around, stewards watching him and a police Inspector no less right there ready. seems all a bit peculiar for a moment of spontenous heckling.

 

[rogersix]

that would be silly. suggesting he mentions it to people in confidence and someone lets it out. fact is there is footage from couple of cameras directly on him, several others around, stewards watching him and a police Inspector no less right there ready. seems all a bit peculiar for a moment of spontenous heckling.

beware the edit

 

[Stato]

By the way, whilst thinking of 1997 and hoping for anything close to a repeat, I'd highly recommend Brian Cathcart's book 'Were You Up For Portillo?' It's a stunning and often hilarious description of the TV coverage of the 1997 election night. Okay, Blair was ultimately a disappointment, but for lefties like me who grew up under the cloud of Thatcher, its fantastic schadenfreude, and a reminder of the 'happy ever after' feeling experienced that week. The description of the Thursday night into Friday morning, also reminds me of the following day at Hereford. The whole week seemed like what my kids refer to as a 'Jim Carey ending', the type of over the top Hollywood wrap up where the goodies win and the baddies finally all get their comeuppance.

The book has so much more though. There were quite a lot of sub plots going on that night: Martin Bell ousting Neil Hamilton, David Mellor losing and trying to make a speech whilst James Goldsmith and his cronies clapped and barked like seals, TV cameras repeatedly returning to watch Barbara and Ken Follett failing to open a bottle of champagne. Portillo was interviewed by Paxman after his defeat and part way through the usual exchange, had a moment of realisation and, seeming human for the first time ever, just said with huge relief 'Jeremy, I don't have to do this anymore.' There was also a great bit of gallows humour from Cecil Parkinson, who was on with David Dimbleby watching the early results come in and realising what kind of night it was going to be. After quite a while, Dimbleby informed him that the tories had their second held seat of the night and Parkinson deadpanned 'Oh good. We'll have a leadership election.'

Who would have thought that I'd be looking back fondly on Portillo and Parkinson? I can't imagine that kind of humility and honesty coming from dead eyed zealots like Braverman, Truss & Anderson. Fingers crossed there'll soon be a chance to find out.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Farage, as in the hours after the Brexit vote, looks like the cat that got the cream.

I was always under the impression, confirmed by writers, that Tory grandees, PM’s and former PM’s couldn’t stand the person and everything about him. They probably still do. But they’ve either retired or like Sunak/Hunt are about to in effect be booted out. Leaving weirdo’s such as Patel and Braverman to welcome him back. Analysed on LBC today that they’re planning for 2029.

I bet they want that vote winning stardust. Sadly he is still popular among many, many millions in England and Wales.

In a media and social media age it’s weird to watch this in real time, caught on smart phones. The dinner dance, part of an insurrection to boot Sunak and Hunt out.

A rare visitor to such threads. Just seen the Farage dancing . So he’s back in the mainstream fold then.

That seals a Tory party for years to come that’ve morphed into the Sarah Palin / Trump Party of the UK. The coup d’etat has taken place in stages. The Rudd’s etc were ousted, then it will be Sunak and Hunt booted out, leaving total control to a rabid cabal. Who’ll eventually deny climate change etc.

Is that the same moderate Sunak who introduced the deadly 'eat out to help out' campaign, resided over this whole economic disaster as either number 2 to Johnson, or Prime Minister. The same one who was fined over partygate and now can't find his whtasapp messages relating to COVID. The same one who appointed Suella Braverman as Home Secretary.

Is that the same Sunak who has been PM/Chancellor and right at the centre and head of the 'rabid cabal's' existence throughout ?

THAT Rishi Sunak, really

 

[Bakero]

Is that the same moderate Sunak who introduced the deadly 'eat out to help out' campaign, resided over this whole economic disaster as either number 2 to Johnson, or Prime Minister. The same one who was fined over partygate and now can't find his whtasapp messages relating to COVID. The same one who appointed Suella Braverman as Home Secretary.

Is that the same Sunak who has been PM/Chancellor and right at the centre and head of the 'rabid cabal's' existence throughout ?

THAT Rishi Sunak, really

That's the one. The self-confessed coke addict with middle-class friends. I guess when you stand him next to the lunatic fringe he associates with he does seem moderate.

 

[WATFORD zero]

My nature is to like certainty and clarity. So I’m glad the cat’s out of the bag. Since 1992 there’s been a struggle with the Redwood’s & pals fighting from within. Mass immigration (I’m not a Brexiteer or close the borders person btw …. just that the numbers don’t lie) gave these fringe characters their opportunity. They’ve almost ‘won’ in taking control of the party.

I wonder if we could end up with several Commons in a row with say Labour 60% of seats, New Right Wing Tory 25%, others 15%? Other than squeezing out the Right, I don’t know if that’s a good thing long term, other voices need real power. My preference would be a Commons dominated with parties and MP’s from social democrats to centre old Tories.

I'm afraid that the mass immigration of the early 90s is yet another long term lie from the same cabal that are now in Government and is now commonly quoted as accepted fact, despite all facts to the contrary

 

[The Clamp]

Don’t bother, they’re here.

 

[Weststander]

I'm afraid that the mass immigration of the early 90s is yet another lie which has now become accepted fact

View attachment 167539

We’re in agreement. As I meant from 1997 onwards. Whilst Redwood et al was lying from 1992 onwards.

And before you jump on me, I loved and love the influx of people. Anyone who’s used hospitals see a united nations of wonderful folk. Then hard working eastern Europeans work as couriers, run catering and retail businesses, keeping the country ticking over.