Mtoto
Well-known member
- Sep 28, 2003
- 1,848
... it just possible there may be a similar opportunity in the charity race at Goodwood on Thursday.
Celebrity/charity races are great. I love them, anyway, because the odds compilers take a maximum of 10 minutes to price them up, and half the runners couldn't win with a furlong start.
This one isn't quite as solid as Plato back in March, but the price is better, and I can't help thinking that Jungle Bay, the mount of Emma Spencer, should be closer to even-money for the Magnolia Cup than the 3-1 that Hills are currently offering.
A couple of other runners have fair recent form, but they are, at best, early-to-mid-70 horses, while Avon River (7-2) and Jungle Bay are both mid-to-high 80s on form. And while Avon River will be ridden by a novice in the form of Pink Floyd drummer Nick Mason's better half, Jungle Bay will be partnered by Emma S, who was sufficiently polished as a jockey to register regular 20pc strike-rates in her late-90s pomp.
She's been busy with motherhood since then, but she is still very fit and her competitive streak is as fierce as ever. She will know that the way to win these races is to get off to a flyer and defy the rest to overtake, which most of her opponents will be too tired, or hopeless, to persuade their mounts to do.
There's plenty that can go wrong, of course, but it's over the straight six furlongs with a flag start and Emma has to be a decent bet to make the most of that too. 3-1 may not seem like much of a price, but in percentage terms, I reckon it could be one of the value bets of the year.
Celebrity/charity races are great. I love them, anyway, because the odds compilers take a maximum of 10 minutes to price them up, and half the runners couldn't win with a furlong start.
This one isn't quite as solid as Plato back in March, but the price is better, and I can't help thinking that Jungle Bay, the mount of Emma Spencer, should be closer to even-money for the Magnolia Cup than the 3-1 that Hills are currently offering.
A couple of other runners have fair recent form, but they are, at best, early-to-mid-70 horses, while Avon River (7-2) and Jungle Bay are both mid-to-high 80s on form. And while Avon River will be ridden by a novice in the form of Pink Floyd drummer Nick Mason's better half, Jungle Bay will be partnered by Emma S, who was sufficiently polished as a jockey to register regular 20pc strike-rates in her late-90s pomp.
She's been busy with motherhood since then, but she is still very fit and her competitive streak is as fierce as ever. She will know that the way to win these races is to get off to a flyer and defy the rest to overtake, which most of her opponents will be too tired, or hopeless, to persuade their mounts to do.
There's plenty that can go wrong, of course, but it's over the straight six furlongs with a flag start and Emma has to be a decent bet to make the most of that too. 3-1 may not seem like much of a price, but in percentage terms, I reckon it could be one of the value bets of the year.
