I have got the last six (including today's) in three. Yes, you need a bit of luck but not a huge amount. The only day I didn't get it in four or fewer over the past three weeks was when my wife got it in two and so I tried to beat her by guessing early and ended up with a five.
Having said...
You can decide to guess, in which case it is just luck, or you can decide to take a turn to eliminate a number of possibilities in which case there is an element of skill.
Just seen I'm top of the table...NY Times related doping I'm afraid :blush:. I got another three today so techcnically I'm still on three but, unlike Dazzer I didn't have a spreadsheet so not 100% sure but my my real average must now be about 3.82
I make 12 possibles after Sight.
Unless you are playing the hard version, you have a choice to make as to whether you want to try for a two or get an almost nailed on four and probable three. ELFIN will rule out four possibilities and has a good chance of giving you your missing letter for a...